What will this winter cost to heat?
Choose a state and describe the house. Each fuel’s season cost appears, cheapest first.
Normal heating season in Pennsylvania: 5,700 heating degree days, so about 57 million Btu of heat to deliver.
- Natural gas $897
- Heat pump $1,412
- Propane $2,353
- Heating oil $2,928
- Electric resistance $3,530
A typical-weather season at this week’s fuel prices. Efficiencies: gas furnace 90%, propane and oil 85%, heat pump seasonal COP 2.5. How the estimate works
How the estimate works
Heat needed = the state’s normal heating degree days × floor area × a heat-loss factor. A heating degree day is one day with an average temperature one degree below 65°F; NOAA publishes statewide totals weighted by where people live. We use the 1991–2020 average.
The heat-loss factor is 5 Btu per square foot per degree day for an average existing house, 3.5 for a tight, newer one and 7 for an older, drafty one. Those are rules of thumb: a real house can sit well outside the range. If you know how much fuel you used last winter, that is a better guide than any estimate.
The fuel needed is that heat divided by equipment efficiency, priced at this week’s state averages. See the methodology for every constant.