Heat pump vs natural gas
Across the U.S. this week, natural gas is the cheaper heat: $15.71 against $21.32 per million Btu delivered. For a typical home in an average U.S. winter that is a difference of about $239.
Heat pump is cheaper in 5 of the 49 states compared; natural gas in 44.
Break-even price
13.4¢
Heat pump is the cheaper heat when it costs less than this per kWh. Assumes a heat pump COP of 2.5 and 90% efficiency for natural gas.
State by state
Typical winter: a 2,000 sq ft home of average insulation in that state’s normal heating season. Italic prices are regional or U.S. averages where EIA does not survey the state.
| Alabama | 16.5¢/kWh | $1.64/therm | $517 | $486 | Natural gas by $31 |
| Arizona | 15.4¢/kWh | $1.76/therm | $346 | $374 | Heat pump by $28 |
| Arkansas | 13.7¢/kWh | $1.98/therm | $547 | $748 | Heat pump by $201 |
| California | 32.6¢/kWh | $2.18/therm | $1,075 | $683 | Natural gas by $392 |
| Colorado | 16.8¢/kWh | $1.04/therm | $1,389 | $818 | Natural gas by $571 |
| Connecticut | 27.5¢/kWh | $1.69/therm | $1,883 | $1,096 | Natural gas by $787 |
| Delaware | 18.0¢/kWh | $1.62/therm | $945 | $807 | Natural gas by $138 |
| District of Columbia | 24.9¢/kWh | $1.56/therm | $1,330 | $790 | Natural gas by $540 |
| Florida | 15.3¢/kWh | $2.20/therm | $116 | $158 | Heat pump by $42 |
| Georgia | 15.5¢/kWh | $1.59/therm | $509 | $496 | Natural gas by $13 |
| Idaho | 13.0¢/kWh | $0.68/therm | $1,048 | $520 | Natural gas by $528 |
| Illinois | 19.2¢/kWh | $1.00/therm | $1,376 | $681 | Natural gas by $695 |
| Indiana | 17.0¢/kWh | $1.04/therm | $1,124 | $651 | Natural gas by $473 |
| Iowa | 14.6¢/kWh | $0.98/therm | $1,164 | $742 | Natural gas by $422 |
| Kansas | 15.3¢/kWh | $1.30/therm | $872 | $707 | Natural gas by $165 |
| Kentucky | 14.2¢/kWh | $1.34/therm | $732 | $654 | Natural gas by $78 |
| Louisiana | 13.3¢/kWh | $1.44/therm | $257 | $264 | Heat pump by $7 |
| Maine | 30.2¢/kWh | $1.73/therm | $2,750 | $1,495 | Natural gas by $1,255 |
| Maryland | 21.3¢/kWh | $1.50/therm | $1,140 | $758 | Natural gas by $382 |
| Massachusetts | 30.2¢/kWh | $2.47/therm | $2,171 | $1,686 | Natural gas by $485 |
| Michigan | 21.7¢/kWh | $1.02/therm | $1,718 | $766 | Natural gas by $952 |
| Minnesota | 16.4¢/kWh | $1.05/therm | $1,645 | $995 | Natural gas by $650 |
| Mississippi | 15.1¢/kWh | $1.42/therm | $422 | $378 | Natural gas by $44 |
| Missouri | 14.3¢/kWh | $1.44/therm | $834 | $796 | Natural gas by $38 |
| Montana | 14.1¢/kWh | $0.84/therm | $1,416 | $801 | Natural gas by $615 |
| Nebraska | 12.9¢/kWh | $1.07/therm | $952 | $746 | Natural gas by $206 |
| Nevada | 13.4¢/kWh | $0.95/therm | $541 | $366 | Natural gas by $175 |
| New Hampshire | 26.9¢/kWh | $1.86/therm | $2,350 | $1,538 | Natural gas by $812 |
| New Jersey | 24.1¢/kWh | $1.37/therm | $1,460 | $789 | Natural gas by $671 |
| New Mexico | 15.3¢/kWh | $0.83/therm | $802 | $411 | Natural gas by $391 |
| New York | 29.3¢/kWh | $1.62/therm | $2,058 | $1,082 | Natural gas by $976 |
| North Carolina | 14.9¢/kWh | $1.52/therm | $588 | $568 | Natural gas by $20 |
| North Dakota | 12.5¢/kWh | $0.84/therm | $1,342 | $858 | Natural gas by $484 |
| Ohio | 18.8¢/kWh | $1.17/therm | $1,254 | $741 | Natural gas by $513 |
| Oklahoma | 13.8¢/kWh | $1.38/therm | $572 | $541 | Natural gas by $31 |
| Oregon | 15.5¢/kWh | $1.58/therm | $955 | $927 | Natural gas by $28 |
| Pennsylvania | 21.1¢/kWh | $1.42/therm | $1,412 | $897 | Natural gas by $515 |
| Rhode Island | 29.0¢/kWh | $2.03/therm | $1,962 | $1,297 | Natural gas by $665 |
| South Carolina | 15.9¢/kWh | $1.48/therm | $482 | $425 | Natural gas by $57 |
| South Dakota | 14.6¢/kWh | $0.95/therm | $1,305 | $806 | Natural gas by $499 |
| Tennessee | 13.8¢/kWh | $1.19/therm | $607 | $495 | Natural gas by $112 |
| Texas | 16.0¢/kWh | $1.88/therm | $342 | $381 | Heat pump by $39 |
| Utah | 13.2¢/kWh | $1.05/therm | $1,079 | $814 | Natural gas by $265 |
| Vermont | 23.9¢/kWh | $1.60/therm | $2,261 | $1,436 | Natural gas by $825 |
| Virginia | 16.9¢/kWh | $1.59/therm | $846 | $754 | Natural gas by $92 |
| Washington | 14.4¢/kWh | $1.43/therm | $949 | $893 | Natural gas by $56 |
| West Virginia | 15.6¢/kWh | $1.28/therm | $925 | $720 | Natural gas by $205 |
| Wisconsin | 19.1¢/kWh | $1.11/therm | $1,681 | $929 | Natural gas by $752 |
| Wyoming | 14.0¢/kWh | $1.04/therm | $1,351 | $954 | Natural gas by $397 |
49 states have state-level prices for both fuels.
Why per-gallon prices mislead
A gallon of heating oil holds 138,500 Btu, a gallon of propane 91,452 Btu, a therm of natural gas 100,000 Btu and a kilowatt-hour of electricity 3,412 Btu (EIA heat contents). Then the equipment loses some of it: a typical oil or propane furnace delivers about 85%, a gas furnace 90%, while a heat pump moves 2.5 units of heat for every unit of electricity over a season.
So the break-even rule for heat pump against natural gas is simple: heat pump wins when its price per kWh is below 0.095× the price of natural gas per therm (with electricity in dollars per kWh).
Equipment, installation and maintenance costs are not part of this comparison. Methodology.
