When is heating oil cheapest?
In 5 of the last 10 heating seasons, October was the cheapest month for heating oil in the U.S.. The median season ran 12.0% above October by February.
October was the cheapest month in 15 of the 21 states with ten seasons of data.
U.S. average, season by season
- base Oct 5/10
- +1.4% Nov 1/10
- +1.9% Dec 0/10
- +6.1% Jan 2/10
- +12.0% Feb 0/10
- +8.6% Mar 2/10
Top: median price compared with October across the last 10 complete seasons. Bottom: in how many of those seasons that month had the lowest average price.
Why the season has a shape
Heating oil is nearly the same product as diesel fuel, so its price follows crude oil and diesel markets as much as the weather. Cold snaps in the Northeast can add a winter premium.
The pattern is not a rule. The biggest swing within one season in the U.S. series was 50% (2021–22). This is history, not a forecast or advice.
State by state
For each state, the month most often cheapest over the last 10 complete seasons, and the median change from October to the priciest month.
| Connecticut | October (5 of 10) | 5 of 10 | February | +14.4% |
| Delaware | October (4 of 10) | 4 of 10 | February | +10.7% |
| Indiana | January (3 of 10) | 2 of 10 | February | +1.5% |
| Iowa | January (3 of 10) | 2 of 10 | February | +0.1% |
| Kentucky | October (3 of 10) | 3 of 10 | March | +2.2% |
| Maine | October (6 of 10) | 6 of 10 | February | +14.7% |
| Maryland | October (5 of 10) | 5 of 10 | February | +10.3% |
| Massachusetts | October (5 of 10) | 5 of 10 | February | +13.0% |
| Michigan | January (3 of 10) | 2 of 10 | February | +1.9% |
| Minnesota | January (3 of 10) | 2 of 10 | March | +1.5% |
| Nebraska | January (3 of 10) | 2 of 10 | October | ±0.0% |
| New Hampshire | October (7 of 10) | 7 of 10 | March | +10.8% |
| New Jersey | October (5 of 10) | 5 of 10 | February | +12.9% |
| New York | October (6 of 10) | 6 of 10 | February | +9.9% |
| North Carolina | October (4 of 10) | 4 of 10 | February | +4.6% |
| Ohio | October (3 of 10) | 3 of 10 | February | +5.7% |
| Pennsylvania | October (3 of 10) | 3 of 10 | February | +13.1% |
| Rhode Island | October (3 of 10) | 3 of 10 | February | +11.2% |
| Vermont | October (5 of 10) | 5 of 10 | February | +8.4% |
| Virginia | October (5 of 10) | 5 of 10 | March | +6.3% |
| Wisconsin | January (3 of 10) | 2 of 10 | February | +0.3% |
What this means for buying
Filling up early in the season has usually been cheaper than buying in mid-winter, but the gap varies a lot from year to year, and EIA does not survey summer prices, when some dealers offer their lowest rates. Pre-buy and capped-price plans fix a price before the season; whether they come out ahead depends on the winter that follows.
Two things matter more than timing for most households: comparing dealers (prices within one state can differ by more than the seasonal swing) and avoiding small emergency deliveries, which often carry fees.